What the Ukraine Invasion Means for the Middle East
Europe is likely to shoulder the brunt of the fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Middle Eastern states could prove to be a close second.
That is no truer than for Turkey and Israel. Their management of the Ukraine crisis could determine their ability to protect perceived core national interests.
Indeed, for NATO-member Turkey, the stakes could not be higher. Its 2,000 kilometer-long Black Sea coastline stretches from the Bulgarian border in the West to Georgia in the East. It is the longest of any of the Sea’s littoral states, including Russia and Ukraine. The Black Sea ranks on par with Turkey’s determination to prevent at any cost a permanent autonomous, let alone independent, Kurdish presence on Syrian soil.
“Ukraine is like a dam that stops further Russian influence and pressure in the region. If Ukraine falls, it will have direct implications on Turkey,” warned a Turkish official.
Turkey’s stakes are magnified by last year’s discovery of a natural gas field in its Black Sea littoral waters. According to Energy Minister Fatih Donmez, it could provide nearly a third of Turkey’s domestic needs by 2027. As the crisis in Ukraine escalates, Turkey could discover that protecting both of those interests may no longer allow it to perform its virtuoso balancing act.
Turkey has been maintaining a fragile partnership with Russia. It has been sustained by careful management of differences while remaining a Western ally committed to the defense of the Western alliance. Turkish economic and military support of Ukraine and Crimean Tartars was aligned with NATO policy which fit well with Turkey’s tightrope act. So was its refusal to recognize the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to throw Turkey off its tightrope and create a Catch-22 for Ankara. The imposition of U.S. and European sanctions against Russia is likely to be the straw that breaks the back of the Turkish tightrope act.
“Syria remains Turkey’s soft spot. For that matter, Russia is likely to put pressure on Turkey through Syria,” said Turkey scholar Galip Dalay. “At a broader level, Russia and Turkey have cooperated and competed with each other through the conflict spots in the Middle East and North Africa. However, Moscow has been less open to repeating this experience with Turkey in the ex-Soviet area…”
