Qatar is the key to peace in postwar Gaza
Even in the best of times, diplomats struggle to get adversaries to compromise for mutually beneficial solutions. Human selfishness, paranoia, in-group solidarity, and shortsightedness make suboptimal outcomes more likely. Look at Israel and Gaza: Amid massacres, forced deportations, a hostage crisis, disinformation, and arguably the worst outbreak of online ethnic hatred since the invention of the internet, it would seem nearly impossible to undertake the compromises needed to free Israeli hostages, prevent a humanitarian tragedy for Palestinian civilians, and forge an optimal solution for postwar governance in Gaza.
Yet, we mustn’t lose hope. Plans are being negotiated by entrepreneurs and experienced go-betweens tying comprehensive hostage release to postwar humanitarian assistance for Gaza. They can, however, be brought to fruition only if they include postwar interim governance arrangements that empower Arab allies to take responsibility for Gaza and to facilitate an end to hostilities.
American and British diplomats should be working on creating a Qatari, Emirati, Saudi, and Egyptian coalition — known in this context as a condominium — to administer postwar Gaza’s foreign affairs, borders, health care, infrastructure, and education for five to 10 years while rebuilding, rooting out Hamas, and preparations for elections are undertaken in parallel. Lessons from post-conflict states that have held elections too early — for example, Libya and Egypt after the Arab Spring — should serve as a warning against a rush to turn things over to the Palestinian Authority or to bring about elections too soon.
This urgent diplomacy does not have to touch the intractable issues concerning the final status of the West Bank, the Israeli settlements there, or even the final status of Gaza.
Unlike in previous Arab-Israeli Wars, the main Arab Sunni powers actually want to reach a settlement that is favorable to certain core Israeli security interests. Privately, Gulf State leaders, along with Jordan, Egypt, and Morocco, appear willing to see Hamas eradicated on the battlefield but are restricted in facilitating that outcome by the pro-Palestinian sentiments and massive Iranian and Russian disinformation campaigns among their populaces. What they are not restricted from doing is helping to implement a post-war interim solution for Gaza that safeguards Palestinian interests while preventing Hamas’s resurgence…
