Lost in transition
In a year undoubtedly marked by the global repercussions of the conflict in Ukraine, existing trends have reinforced a realignment in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that could herald a new era for the region. In particular, the push towards a détente (which dates to the change of administration in the US in 2020 at least) seems anchored in the process of normalisation that involves not only Israel and its Arab partners – as we have seen so far following the Abraham Accords – but also middle powers so far engaged in a power struggle across the region, which has had devastating consequences for conflict-torn countries such as Libya, Syria and Yemen.
Faced with the difficult choice between Russia and the West, Arab leaders have increasingly adopted a neutral tone, as shown in the early days of the war by the UAE’s decision to abstain from a UN Security Council resolution to condemn Moscow. This new non-alignment[1] has been eased by several factors, including the unpredictable and erratic policies of Western partners, which have frequently led to serious misunderstandings on the most pressing issues, such as Afghanistan: in the eyes of Arab leaders, the chaotic withdrawal has certainly magnified Washington’s disengagement from the region, leading to the conviction that their security interests do not always coincide with those of the West…
- Umberto Profazio (Project Fellow, NATO & its Adversaries) for Trends RA.
