Saudi nationalism and the end of Pax Americana
When Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, the Americans’ Middle Eastern allies, particularly Saudi Arabia, intervened to stabilise global oil prices. For decades, as the global ‘swing producer’ of oil, Saudi Arabia has been able to adjust its production levels to change, and stabilise the price. And it has done so repeatedly, often in order to help its ally America.
The Saudis helped America for two reasons - partly because much of its surplus from oil sales was invested in the West, especially the United States, giving it an interest in economic stability there. But the main reason was that the Saudis’ security was guaranteed by America. This was illustrated most clearly with the deployment of US forces to Saudi Arabia in 1990 to defend it against Iraq. More than half a million US military were sent to the deserts of Saudi Arabia, which is a reminder of the power of the sole global superpower at the end of the Cold War.
Like many a faltering relationship, the slow, conscious uncoupling of the US - Saudi bond has unfolded over many years.
Like many a faltering relationship, the slow, conscious uncoupling of the US - Saudi bond has unfolded over many years. A major setback was the 9/11 attacks, perpetrated by 19 hijackers, 15 of which were Saudis, and spearheaded by another Saudi, Usama bin Ladin. Since that time it has emerged that Saudi diplomats assisted some of the key hijackers whilst they were in California preparing the attacks (although it isn’t clear whether these diplomats knew about the attackers’ intentions and no evidence has emerged that the Saudi government itself was involved in attack planning).
A young man in a hurry
The major change has been the arrival on the scene of Muhammad bin Salman (MBS) as Crown Prince since 2017 and effective ruler of the country. MBS, unlike many of his older siblings and cousins, was not educated outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Instead, he was under the influence of Professor Hamad bin Muhammad Al-AlSheikh at King Saud University. This is one of the factors that gives MBS a very different perspective on where the Kingdom’s interests lie (another being his age - he is in his thirties and the Gulf War must seem to him a distant episode of history). Al-AlSheikh taught MBS that Saudi Arabia needed to stop being the world’s gas station, and start acting in its own direct national interests. For decades, Saudi Arabia was run as the private property of the Al-Saud family: it didn’t have national policies so much as family interests. The Al-Sauds maintained their oil markets and their security relationships. And they continued a centuries-old alliance with ultra-orthodox Sunni Islam which they enforced domestically and promoted globally. By channelling billions of petrodollars into the promotion of Wahhabism worldwide, the Al-Saud sought to reduce attention on their own distinctly unIslamic lifestyles…
