Xi Jinping and the AUKUS Submarine Deal

Dr. Kenneth Dekleva writes for The Cipher Brief on the US-UK-Australia nuclear submarine deal, AUKUS. This historic deal, coming off the abysmal, shameful American withdrawal from Afghanistan earlier this summer, is seen as evidence that ‘America is Back’, and that former President Obama’s earlier ‘pivot to Asia’ is more robust under the current Biden administration.  What has been less commented on is how other nations (Japan, India, New Zealand, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, Pakistan, Iran, Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand, North Korea, and Russia) will react to this deal?  And most saliently, how will China’s President Xi Jinping respond? AUKUS risks disrupting a delicate non-proliferation equilibrium, even more so than the 2006 US-India civilian nuclear deal.  By allowing a non-nuclear power to obtain nuclear submarines, China and Russia can now compellingly make the argument that they too can sell similar technologies to their allies, such as Pakistan, Iran, Myanmar, and North Korea.  There’s also the risk that other American allies in Asia – such as South Korea, Indonesia, and Japan – might desire similar technology.

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